Thailand’s ‘Bold Move’ to revive tourism to take years, analysts say

BANGKOK, Oct 12 (Bloomberg): Thailand's plan to end quarantine for vaccinated visitors is "a fight to win foreign tourists", Tourism and Sports Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn said on Tuesday (Oct 12).

But analysts and industry executives see it as a long road to recovery fraught with risks of periodic virus resurgence and unpredictable travel trends.

Minister Phiphat said Thailand's reopening plan coincides with many other nations' efforts to allow easier cross-border travel and is a fight to win foreign tourists in the next few months.

His ministry wants to attract travellers from China the most, and may seek travel bubbles with Asean nations if they are low-risk countries and travellers have been fully vaccinated.

A return to the pre-pandemic levels of tourist arrivals and spending will likely take a few years, according to Marisa Sukosol Nunbhakdi, the president of the Thai Hotels Association.

It is unlikely that large groups of visitors will immediately head to Thailand, given the volatile nature of global travel and the coronavirus situation, she said.

"The light at the end of the tunnel is here, but at the same time it will be a slow climb back to the levels seen before the pandemic," Marisa said. "Travel is still so volatile so we have to manage our risks. Keeping costs low will still remain a key strategy for all the hotels in Thailand."

Thailand will end quarantine for vaccinated visitors from low-risk nations from Nov 1, joining a growing list of nations reopening to cross-border travellers ahead of the year-end holiday season, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha said on Monday.

The surprise announcement saw the nation's currency surge the most in more than two weeks, and stocks of airport operators, hotels and airlines rally to lift the benchmark index to a one-month high.

Ekasit Kunadirekwong, an analyst at Krungsri Securities, said that with the "bold move", tourism recovery is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter along with rising vaccination rate and roll-out of booster shots.

Thailand's low vaccination rate of 32 per cent could lead to a spike in new cases upon reopening for inbound travellers and easing of restrictions for business activities.

Krungsri expects Thailand's population to reach 70 per cent vaccination rate by year-end with tourist arrivals forecast maintained at 300,000 this year, 14 million in 2022, 34 million in 2023, and a rebound to pre-pandemic levels of 40 million by 2024.

Sunthorn Thongthip, an analyst at Kasikorn Securities, said the latest move will help remove the barriers preventing tourists from coming to Thailand and to stimulate economic activity during the New Year festive period.

Sunthorn sees an upside to Bank of Thailand's 2022 GDP forecast of 3.9 per cent which is based on tourist arrivals estimate of 6 million next year. Every 3 million tourist arrivals in Thailand is expected to create 1 per cent upside to GDP growth.

Sunthorn expects the baht to rise to 32.75 vs US dollar by end-2021.

Kasikorn Securities is positive towards the Thai equities market as the reopening should benefit domestic, tourism related sectors.

Kampon Adireksombat, deputy managing director of SCB Securities' Chief Investment Office, said the economic recovery still faces many downside risks and there is a need to monitor how many tourists actually come in, especially from China, the biggest source of visitors pre-Covid.

Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said the reopening is necessary to boost the Thai economy as tourism accounts for more than 10 per cent of GDP.

"Thailand needs to reopen to gain more income and benefit from global economic recovery. If not, the nation will only suffer from higher costs due to rising oil prices," Supant said. - Bloomberg

Source - ASIAN NOW

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WHO backs reopenings: Cambodia rep says new normal possible if adopted safely

 

WHO in Cambodia has requested the Ministry of Health to consider reopening all sectors, especially businesses in the Kingdom, after observing a sustainable and well-managed response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

World Health Organization Representative to Cambodia Dr Li Ailan told Khmer Times yesterday that Safe & Sustainable reopening is possible, if well managed.

“We need to apply a good risk management approach in all the sectors, especially the business sector for business reopening. Individuals need to make right choices on Covid-19 measures. Implementation & Monitoring are key,” Dr Ailan said.

“We have indeed learned some lessons to realize the  safe-reopening ambition,” she added.

She cautioned however, that if reopening is rushed without good planning and risk management in place, cases will surge, hospitals are highly likely to become overwhelmed and businesses may close again.

“I think that it is the right time to consider reopening the economy and our society safely and responsibly. The current Covid-19 response strategies need to be adjusted towards the New Normal and relevant policies must support all sectors to invest in balanced, risk-based public health and social measures,” she said.

Dr Ailan added that it is crucial to have functional monitoring of implementation and compliance. Policies should support the health sector to shift toward less intensive, more sustainable Covid-19 operations and improving health care and public health surveillance systems for early detection and rapid response to any future outbreaks.

She noted that the virus, especially the Delta variant, is circulating in the community and can still cause a surge in Covid-19 cases to overwhelm health care, even if the vaccination coverage is high, if reopening of businesses is not well managed.

Dr Ailan said WHO advises and encourages the application of a risk-based approach in reopening all the sectors as well as to shift mindsets and efforts in “learning, adjusting and sustaining” to a new way of working and living.

She also said that Cambodia’s high vaccination coverage provides a good basis for reopening the economy and society safely and responsibly. However, vaccination alone is not enough.

“We are working to provide our policy advice and technical support in moving towards “living with Covid-19” as an endemic disease in the future,” she said.

“We need a good combination of “vaccination”, “public health & social measures (PHSM)” and “health care capacity,” she said. “As we move forward in this situation of higher vaccination coverage, we will have to test our new ways of living. We must try, learn, adjust, and sustain new measures and behavior.”

She said each sector can open safely and responsibly with balanced, risk-based policies on public health and social measures that incorporate guidance from the health sector, monitoring of implementation and compliance with the measures, and engagement and communication with the members of the sector.

Investments in these measures are investments in the lives and livelihoods of the people of that sector, Dr Ailan noted.

Regarding recent irresponsible behavior by some holidaymakers during Pchum Ben, she said communities should also play a part by adopting measures that reduce disease spread.

“I regret that there are some who were not taking this responsibility seriously. We have seen images in some places and social media of crowding and maskless gatherings. These are the kinds of situations that can send Cambodia over the Red Line and back into prolonged social disruptions,” Dr Ailan said.

“We should not revert the progress made so far in Cambodia.  WHO is grateful to those who are working hard and who are monitoring the situation during their holidays? We thank the local authorities for taking some quick action to prevent a tragedy. This kind of monitoring and quick response, not waiting for cases to occur, is exactly the kind of try, learn, adjust, and sustain approach that Cambodia needs,” she added.

Ministry of Health spokeswoman Or Vandine said yesterday that she is hoping to get out from the Covid-19 box as soon as possible, if people continue to practice the  3 Do’s and 3 Don’ts correctly and regularly.

“Learning to carefully exercise necessary preventive measures allows us to live with a new normal when reopening businesses safely,” Vandine said.

On Friday, Prime Minister Hun Sen announced that Cambodia will be capable of  reopening its economy across all sectors if the Covid-19 situation post Pchum Ben remains stable at current levels for at least 10 consecutive days.

“If the situation remains as it is for the next 10 to 15 days, then I think it is time to reopen the economy, and society, across all sectors under the new normal concept,” Mr Hun Sen said.

In another development, Hem Sinareth, the capital’s director of the Department of Education, said on Saturday evening that from October 8 to October 9, 6,000 teachers were tested for Covid-19 and 11 were found positive.

He said the remaining 1,000 teachers in the capital will be tested today.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Health yesterday reported 239 new cases of Covid-19 using PCR testing, bringing the total number in the country to 107,857. Of the new cases, 25 are imported and the rest are linked to the February 20 Community Event.

The ministry also announced 24 new deaths, bringing the total number of fatalities to 2,506.

At the same time, it also recorded 481 new recoveries, bringing the total number to 107,857.

Source - Khmer Post

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Vietnam mulls welcoming foreign tourists to select destinations

Authorities may reopen select tourist destinations to vaccinated foreign visitors, but the timeline will depend on localities' readiness, including vaccine coverage.
Nguyen Trung Khanh, head of the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism, said Friday that Vietnam has not finalized on when it can fully welcome foreign tourists back.

"A reopening roadmap has to be carefully planned based on Covid-19 control and the preparedness of localities."

Khanh said plans to receive foreign tourists to Vietnam's largest island Phu Quoc Island in the southern Kien Giang Province in November have been approved by the government, but a specific date has not been determined.

All residents on the island have received one Covid-19 vaccine shot, and the second shots will be administered in November to prepare for the opening, which is expected to be trialed in six months.

The government had earlier approved plans to allow fully immunized tourists from Europe, the U.S., Northeast Asia, Australia, and the Middle East to visit Phu Quoc, stay at sequestered resorts and visit a limited number of tourism spots during the first phase of the reopening.

Initially, the government had planned to welcome back foreign tourists to Phu Quoc Island from this month but low vaccination rates forced the island to push back reopening.

Khanh Hoa Province, home to beach towns Cam Ranh and Nha Trang, is expected to be the next destination in Vietnam to reopen to foreign tourists.

The government closed its doors to foreign tourists and canceled all international flights in March last year as a Covid containment measure. Only Vietnamese repatriates, foreign experts and highly-skilled workers are allowed in with stringent conditions.

Vietnam recorded a 79 percent decline year-on-year in the number of foreign visitors in 2020 due to travel restrictions amid the pandemic.

The nation welcomed just 3.83 million foreign visitors against a record 18 million in 2019, according to official data.

Source - VN Express

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Expats in Thailand are living ‘healthier lives’

 

Aetna International has released a report saying Expats in Thailand are leading healthier lives and actively taking control of their physical health.
However many say they struggle with their mental health due to the coronavirus.

The data has been revealed in the Expat Experiences Survey, published by international health benefits provider, Aetna International.

The report, which surveyed 1,000 expats in the UK, the U.S., China, Thailand, Singapore and the UAE, explores the what impact the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdown has had on expat health and wellbeing. Also addressing both mental and physical health.

This latest report delves into the true challenges of living abroad, from how expats feel about their new home to how they think they are viewed by locals.

It also touches on expat opinions of locals as well as the impact of COVID-19 on the lives of expats.

It was interesting to read that even though social distancing measures should be adhered to which would prevent them from meeting friends and families, 56.3% of the respondents agreed that, if they had the option, they would prefer to be in their own country during the pandemic.

Interestingly, Thailand had the highest number of expats who would wish to be home at this time, at 71%.

Thailand is the most affected nation on mental health
The survey’s published key findings referenced Worldbackpackers.com, which named Chiang Mai as a top three city for digital nomads, as a possible reason, stating;

“It may be the case that younger entrepreneurs do not set down roots — start or take families — and therefore have less in-country support network. These individuals may be more inclined to head home in times of crises.”

Interestingly too that Thailand is the most affected nation on mental health with 50% of expats reporting an impact.

Considering we have low COVID-19 death rates, this may be related to the fact that the country’s economy is heavily reliant on tourism causing economic stress.

The good news is that nearly 60% of participants admitted to eating more healthily since the pandemic, with only 21% eating less healthy.

Thailand takes the crown here with 80% of expats claiming to be eating more healthily. A whopping 43% of participants are exercising more with 27% of people drinking less alcohol and only 18% drinking more.

Another badge of honour for Thailand’s expats is the fact that you are all exercising more than anyone with 57% (versus the average of 30% in other regions) saying they are. – Aetna International

Source - BangkokJack

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Thailand must reopen soon if it wants to survive: FTI

With such a long time since tourists were welcomed into Thailand, the Federation of Thai Industries fears that potential tourists may be wandering away from Thailand. The FTI chairman warned that the window may be closing to still attract these travellers.

They say absence makes the heart grow fonder, but as Thailand’s closure to nearly all international tourism stretches to almost 2 years, tourists’ fond recollections of sun-drenched beaches, beautiful temples, great food, or wild nights may be fading away to a distant memory, and they may be tempted away by newer travel destination ideas.

The FTI chairman fears that Thailand has kept its doors closed and the tourism industry shuttered for too long already, and it’s time to rip off the bandage and reopen the country fully to international travellers.

He argues that now that 40% to 50% of the population of Thailand has been vaccinated, with injections continuing at a steady pace, the country is reasonably protected from Covid-19 outbreak if it were to reopen the borders.  The number of daily infections has dropped from its peak near 25,000 a day to consistently around the 10,000 per day mark.

Hospitals that were once overrun with incoming patients as authorities raced to set up hotel/hospital facilities, field hospitals, and community quarantine centres have now calmed and the previous bed shortages are no more. Thailand is prepared for the medical needs of future Covid-19 patients should a surge occur as the borders are reopened.

The FTI chairman did say that vaccination is still lagging and that before opening the country, a drive should focus on vaccinating the business sector so it is ready to open and operate safely for a full international reopening.

He stated that the economy is beginning to show signs of recovery and economic activity is fluttering to life though the Sandbox figures were disappointing, but that the gross domestic product will grow by only 1% this year and government assistance is still needed to help small to medium-sized enterprises stay afloat.

Source - The Thaiger / The Star

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The Thai holiday resort known locally as ‘Murder Island’

 

On the 15th of February 2017 Russian tourist Valentina Novozhyonova, 23, left her bungalow on Koh Tao and was never seen again.
The news of the young girl’s disappearance took almost 3 weeks to emerge from the tiny island now being dubbed ‘Murder Island’ by the press due to the extraordinary number of tourists who die in suspicious circumstances while holidaying there.

When it comes to strange goings on the mystery surrounding the disappearance of Valentia is no exception.

While the residents of Koh Tao are appalled at the new nickname for the chunk of rock they call home, it is hardly surprising. ‘Turtle Island’ has a bad reputation when it takes three weeks for a search to be called when a young backpacker goes missing.

A post on the Koh Tao community page on Facebook even states that news of the missing girl should be suppressed to protect the already dwindling reputation of the island.

And now rumours are circulating that the body of a young girl was found six weeks ago partially burnt, eaten by animals and partially wrapped in T-shirts.

Unsurprisingly this information was never made public and never appeared in any police report and was never passed on to Valentina’s grieving family who have been told that the search for the girl still continues, despite there being no evidence to suggest that it is.

Victims & Timeline

Nick Pearson, 25: January 1, 2014

Hannah Witheridge, 23: September 15, 2014

David Miller, 24: September 15, 2014

Dimitri Povse, 29: January 1, 2015

Christina Annesley, 23: January 21, 2015

Luke Miller, 26: January 8, 2016

Valentina Novozhyonova, 23: February 11-16, 2017

Elise Dallemagne, 30: April 21-28, 2017

Yann Naquin, 31: August 10, 2019

Olha Frolova, 32: May 25, 2020

Uthen Ruangnon, 47: June 8, 2020

Source - BangkokJack

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Thailand must reopen soon if it wants to survive: FTI

 

The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) is concerned that tourists may not be interested in Thailand if the country takes too long to open its doors.

Also, he said, the number of daily cases has dropped, and Thailand has the facilities to treat Covid-19 patients. However, he said, the authorities should speed up the vaccination rate in the business sector before reopening the country.

Suphan predicted that Thailand’s gross domestic product will grow by less than 1 per cent as the number of tourists visiting under sandbox schemes was lower than expected.

He said that though the economy is showing signs of recovery and economic activities have resumed after the lifting of lockdown, the government still needs to lend a helping hand to small businesses. He said most SMEs cannot reopen due to liquidity problems.

Source - TheNation

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