Euro recovers slightly against the Thai Baht; ECB decision due Thursday

 

After a weak first half of October, the euro has regained some ground against the Thai baht. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) official reference rate rose from 37.574 baht on October 9 to 37.821 baht on Monday, October 26. The ECB is set to meet in Frankfurt on Thursday, October 29, to discuss monetary policy. The decision will be announced at 2:15 PM Central European Time, followed by a press conference.

Euro slowly climbs from October low
The recovery has been modest so far. At the beginning of October, the euro stood at 38.023 baht, before falling to 37.574 baht on October 9. Since then, the currency has gradually climbed back up; the ECB recorded a rate of 37.811 baht on October 22 and 37.821 baht on October 26.

For those living in Thailand who receive income, a pension, or hold savings in euros, such a difference has a direct impact on purchasing power. At a theoretical exchange rate of 37.821, €2,000 would yield approximately 75,642 baht. On July 22, the ECB reference rate was 38.570 baht; at that time, the same amount would have been worth approximately 77,140 baht—a difference of nearly 1,500 baht.

Actual exchange rates are usually lower
The ECB rate is a reference rate, not the rate you will automatically receive at a bank or currency exchange office. For this reason, the Bank of Thailand also publishes the average exchange rates actually applied by Thai commercial banks. On October 22, for example, the average buying rate for a euro transfer at Thai banks was 37.4268 baht. On October 14, it was 37.2598 baht.

Fees and the exchange rate applied by your own bank or payment service provider may further affect the final amount.

The market looks to the ECB on Thursday
The next key date is Thursday, October 29. At 2:15 PM, the ECB will announce its latest interest rate decision. The central bank’s decision is not officially determined in advance; therefore, it is best to avoid stating as a fact that interest rates will remain unchanged.

Sources: European Central Bank, euro reference exchange rate for the Thai baht; European Central Bank, meeting agenda for October 29; Bank of Thailand, daily exchange rates

Source: Thailandblog 

Thai Baht falls to three-month low

The Thai baht is nearing its lowest level in three months. On October 22, the currency was trading at 33.73 baht to the US dollar. In the coming days, interest rate decisions in Thailand, the United States, and Europe could trigger further volatility—a point particularly relevant if you are planning to transfer a large sum of money to Thailand soon.

A week earlier, the baht was trading at around 33.50 to the dollar, but it subsequently lost ground due to a combination of rising oil prices, unrest in the Middle East, and a stronger US dollar. Developments in the international gold market also played a role. By the close of trading on October 22, the baht stood at 33.72 to the dollar.

For the week of October 26–30, the Kasikorn Research Center projected an exchange rate range of 33.30 to 33.80 baht per dollar. Within this range, the currency could see rapid fluctuations, as several central banks are set to announce key interest rate decisions this week. Furthermore, the release of new economic data could impact the currency market, thereby indirectly affecting the euro-baht exchange rate.

Rising oil prices put pressure on Thailand

Thailand is a major energy importer and is therefore sensitive to increases in oil prices. Tensions in the Middle East have driven up prices and heightened uncertainty in financial markets over the past few weeks. This could have a negative impact on the baht, as higher energy costs may put pressure on Thailand’s trade balance.

At the same time, the US dollar has strengthened. During periods of instability, investors often seek refuge in the dollar, which can lead to the weakening of currencies from emerging markets. Sell-offs in the international gold market have also been a contributing factor. In Thailand, the gold trade plays a relatively significant role in the daily supply and demand for foreign currency.
Bank of Thailand to make a decision on October 28
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand is set to meet on Wednesday, October 28. The outcome is being closely watched, as interest rate expectations can directly influence the attractiveness of the baht to international investors.

In addition, Thailand’s export figures for September, along with new economic data, are due to be released. Strong export figures could provide sustained support for the baht, while disappointing numbers could exert further pressure. Meanwhile, foreign capital flows remain a key factor; between October 19 and October 22, foreign investors were net buyers of Thai stocks and bonds, which provided some support to the financial markets.

Fed and ECB could also influence the euro-baht exchange rate
The US Federal Reserve is set to meet on October 27 and 28. Financial markets are primarily looking for clarity regarding future interest rate policy. Any shift in expectations concerning US interest rates could trigger a rapid response from the dollar, which would almost immediately affect the dollar-baht exchange rate.
A day later, on October 29, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its own interest rate decision. For Dutch and Belgian nationals in Thailand, this particular decision is of special interest. The number of baht one receives for a euro is not determined solely by the Thai currency; the euro’s exchange rate against the US dollar also plays a significant role.

Consider waiting a few days before making a large transfer
Those planning to transfer a substantial sum to Thailand soon will face a week filled with events likely to impact exchange rates. Decisions from the Fed, the Bank of Thailand, and the ECB are all scheduled within a few days of one another. Consequently, the euro-baht exchange rate may experience greater volatility than it would during a typical, quieter week of trading.
You might choose to wait for these decisions to be announced before executing a large transfer. While this offers no guarantee of a more favorable rate—as currency fluctuations are notoriously difficult to predict—you will at least have more information regarding the interest rate policies in Thailand, the United States, and the eurozone by the end of Thursday.

The coming week will be decisive for the baht
The baht begins the new week at its weakest level in approximately three months. The Kasikorn Research Center anticipates an exchange rate in the range of 33.30 to 33.80 baht per US dollar. With three major central bank meetings and new Thai export figures on the horizon, this range could soon be put to the test. For those transferring euros to Thailand, this will therefore be a week to keep an especially close eye on the exchange rate.

Sources:

Pattaya Mail

Federal Reserve

European Central Bank

Thailand Blog 

Thai baht soars to six-month high against US dollar

The Thai baht opened at 34.78 against the US dollar today, strengthening from yesterday’s close of 35 to a six-month high.

The baht’s sudden rise is down to the Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) hiking the policy rate by a quarter point earlier this week.

The BOT remains committed to a gradual monetary tightening policy, raising the policy rate from 1% to 1.25% on Wednesday.

Economic growth this year is expected to be at 3.2%, lower than the prior projection of 3.3%, according to the central bank. The BOT also cut its 2023 growth forecast to 3.7% from 3.8%.

Thailand’s currency is facing pressure from the depreciating US dollar, gold sales, and foreign investors possibly buying more Thai bonds amid continuous drops in the US 10-Year bond yields.

Investors might want to sell the baht now as it edges near the support level of 34.75. Once it hits the support level, it could depreciate again.

Although, US labour data coming out this weak could impact the baht’s value. Low employment rates could help the baht but high levels of employment could weaken the baht, so it’s up to investors whether to hold out and see.

Krungthai market specialist Poon Panichpibool advised investors to use hedging tools in the highly-volatile currency market.

Economists have high hopes for the baht in the long run. Capital Market Research Specialist at Kasikorn Bank Kittika Boonsrang predicts…

“I expect the Thai baht to get a high that could be around 33.50 to 34.00 per US dollar by the end of next year.”

The forecast will only be achievable if Thailand pumps up exports and ramps up tourist arrivals, added Kittika.

Other regional currencies have also strengthened against the greenback amid hopes that China will ease up their Covid-19 restrictions.

Currencies have been highly sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening this year which was designed to fix high inflation rates in the US.

Source - The Thaiger

YOUR AFFILIATE / REFERRAL LINK HERE

.

Thai baht plunges to 38 against US dollar for first time in 16 years

The volatile Thai baht has depreciated to 38 against the US dollar even faster than foreseen by economists. The last time the baht reached 38 to the dollar was 16 years and two months ago on July 26, 2006.

The baht has hit the 38 mark even earlier than expected by the Head of Capital at Kasikorn Bank Kobsidthi Silpachai, who just a few days ago predicted that the baht would depreciate to 36.50 – 38 against the US dollar within the next month.

The baht’s depreciation is attributed to the rising strength of the US dollar. The dollar index has risen to 114, causing several currencies worldwide to depreciate. The US dollar continues to grow in value due to continued federal fund hikes.

The dollar has flown in 2022 amid the Federal Reserves’ aggressive interest rate hikes, Europe’s energy crisis, and China’s Covid-19 lockdowns. Cambridge University economist Mohamed El-Erian said the strength of the US dollar is bad news for the world economy…

“What is clear is we have this relentless increase in yields, this relentless appreciation of the dollar. They are both bad news for corporates and for the economy.”

Amid pressure from high inflation rates and the depreciating baht, Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet today to discuss raising the policy rate from 0.75% to 1%. The policy rate hike will increase interest rates between Thailand and the US with the goal of temporarily strengthening the baht and “supporting economic recovery.”

In the long term, Thailand is relying on the recovery of the tourism industry to strengthen the nation’s currency. K Bank predicts that the baht will rise to 35 to the US dollar before long as continually growing tourist arrivals pump money into the economy.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand predicts that Thailand will welcome a total of 9.3 million tourist arrivals in 2022.

Source: Bangkok Biz News / The Thaiger

YOUR AFFILIATE LINK HERE

.

PayPal is cancelling personal accounts in Thailand from next year

PayPal will no longer be available to the vast majority of people in Thailand from February 2022.

PayPal recently announced that anyone in Thailand who set up a personal account before March 2021, will no longer be able to receive payments or even have a balance on their account from February 2022.

“PayPal is preparing to relaunch services in Thailand. If your account was opened prior to March 7, 2021, you will need to take some action to continue using your account in Thailand, the company says on its website.

The move essentially means that as of February next year, PayPal will no longer be available to customers with personal accounts in Thailand.

For people who rely on PayPal to receive payments from overseas, they will no longer be able to do so without a registered business account.

Online teachers, freelance workers, digital nomads or even people in Thailand who use PayPal to receive money from friends and family overseas will have to find an alternative.
In order to get a registered business account, people will need to be registered via the Thai government’s Know Your Business (KYB) scheme.

Registration for a business account requires applicants to submit their 13 digit registration number, as well as the identification documents of all company shareholders with more than 25% stake in the company. In addition, anyone who is authorised to use said business account is also required to submit their identification documents.

Furthermore, business accounts will then be charged 7% VAT on all transactions, while domestic transactions can only be made in Thai baht and must be linked to a Thai bank account.

Business customers will also no longer be able to transfer money bank accounts in the United States.

The move has come about after the Thai government overhauled regulation of the country’s fintech sector.

This means that PayPal has been forced to adhere to a new regulatory framework in order to be able to operate in Thailand.

However, speculation online says the move is to do with Thailand cracking down on money laundering.

Last year PayPal announced it was no longer accepting new registrations for accounts from people in Thailand.

Source - ASIAN NOW

 

VISA AGENT  /  How to register for: THAI PASS

.

 

Travel wallet YouTrip sees unstoppable Thai baht as opportunity

YouTrip, the provider of a multi-currency travel wallet service in Asia, thinks it could be a beneficiary of Thailand’s high-flying baht.

The baht’s climb spurs foreign-exchange demand by encouraging Thais to travel and shop abroad, YouTrip’s Chief Executive Officer Caecilia Chu said in an interview in Bangkok. The company rolled out its service in Singapore last year and in Thailand this month.

“This is the best time to enter the market,” Chu said. “People want to buy things outside of Thailand because the currency is so strong.”

YouTrip offers a multi-currency travel e-wallet with a prepaid Mastercard. Users charge up the wallet from their smartphones. The card lets travelers pay overseas with no fees in 150 currencies at wholesale exchange rates, according to the firm.

The service is trying to disrupt a sector that can involve either time-consuming, cash-heavy trips to money changers, or the use of traditional bank cards with fees and exchange-rate markups.

The firm’s revenue comes from commissions paid by merchants for purchases using the card.

The Thai baht has appreciated more than 9% against the dollar in the past year, the most in emerging markets, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The jump has hurt the trade-led Thai economy, which is on course for the weakest growth in 2019 in five years.

The slowdown could crimp outbound tourism temporarily but many analysts see long-term potential. Chu said about 11 million Thais go overseas for holiday each year, spending an estimated 400 billion baht ($13.2 billion).

She aims to sign up 400,000 Thai customers in the first year. The “untapped opportunity” stems from the fact they undertake foreign-exchange transactions in cash, Chu said.

YouTrip, which also has a base in Hong Kong, plans to expand into at most two more Southeast Asian markets over the next year, Chu said. The firm raised S$25.5 million ($18.7 million) in funding in May.

Source - TheJakartaPost